Dr Vlаdimir Раrаmоnоv & Dr Аlеksеy Strоkоv: Russiаn-Сhinеsе Rеlаtiоns: Раst, Рrеsеnt & FuturеНазад
Dr Vlаdimir Раrаmоnоv & Dr Аlеksеy Strоkоv: Russiаn-Сhinеsе Rеlаtiоns: Раst, Рrеsеnt & Futurе
Key Points
* The history of relations between Russia and China, especially from the middle of the 19th century to the end of the 20th century, is a story of cyclical swings between periods of antagonism and periods of rapprochement.
* Present-day relations between the two countries are difficult. The increasing pace of cooperation in the political and military technology areas is not matched by mutually advantageous economic arrangements, so that what looks like a period of rapprochement could easily come to a sudden halt for a number of reasons, as has happened several times in the past.
* Relations between Russia and China could be underpinned by more cooperation in industry, manufacturing and investment, for example within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It would be in the interests of both countries to encourage the SCO to move in this direction.
* In practice, however, there is not yet much sign of this happening. Moscow and Beijing continue to pretend that there are no significant problems in their bilateral relations, while paying little attention to the development of mutually-advantageous economic links. The SCO, meanwhile, is little more than a political club, where questions of cooperation in industry and investment have never progressed beyond declarations of intent.
* The most likely development, seen from today`s perspective, is the gradual economic absorption of the Asiatic part of Russia by China.
This scenario could not only lead to conflict between the two states, but could affect Eurasia as a whole (half of which is made up of Russia and China).
