Dr Vlаdimir Раrаmоnоv & Dr Аlеksеy Strоkоv: Есоnоmiс Invоlvеmеnt оf Russiа аnd Сhinа in Сеntrаl АsiаНазад
Dr Vlаdimir Раrаmоnоv & Dr Аlеksеy Strоkоv: Есоnоmiс Invоlvеmеnt оf Russiа аnd Сhinа in Сеntrаl Аsiа
Key Points
* The history of relations of Russia and China with Central Asia goes back many centuries, to the days of the Great Silk Road. The rise in the level of economic activity of Russia in the region, however, was not always in step with that of China
* While the Soviet Union existed there were no direct economic links between China and Soviet Central Asia, but the collapse of the Soviet Union was the impetus for them to be formed. In the 1990s this was still a slow process: economic activity with China was an order of magnitude lower than that with Russia.
* Trade between Central Asia and China increased greatly from 2000 onwards. The gap between the Russian and Chinese levels of trade with Central Asia has narrowed slowly but inexorably, so that they are now comparable. If the so-called "shuttle" trade is taken into account, China is now a more significant economic partner than Russia for some countries of the region.
* The development of economic links with both Russia and China has caused the economies of Central Asia to suffer economic exhaustion, as they have had to satisfy a growing demand for raw materials, at the expense of their own processing industries. This trend could lead to a social and economic crisis in a large part of the Central Asian region (as currently exists in Kyrgyzstan), with a threat to the security also of Russia and China.
* The scenario of sharper competition between Moscow and Beijing for influence in the region is also potentially a threat to security. This scenario is by no means far-fetched, in view of the sometimes difficult history of Russian-Chinese relations, and the facts that the Chinese economy is booming and the Russian economy, recovering after a period of serious difficulty, will have an urgent need
for Central Asian raw materials.
* If the process of simultaneous growth of Russian and Chinese economic involvement in Central Asia is to lead to fruitful cooperation close cooperation within institutions such as the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) will be vital. The activities of these organisations should be focussed on intensive cooperation, industrial manufacturing and innovation within the region under a "EurAsEC + China" heading.
