Dr Vladimir Paramonov: The Future Supply Of Gas From Central Asia To Russia: An Expert AssessmentНазад
Dr Vladimir Paramonov: The Future Supply Of Gas From Central Asia To Russia: An Expert Assessment
Key Points
* Since 2003 the supply of gas from Central Asia to Russia has been progressively increasing, with Russia using the gas both for domestic consumption and for re-export. Maintaining and increasing the flow of Central Asian gas is of vital importance to Moscow, given the high price of energy and the slow rate and difficulty in developing Russia`s own gas-extraction industry.
* Many uncertainties surround this supply, however, even in the immediate future. These are compounded in the medium term by other complications such as the active development of international projects for hydrocarbon extraction and by the commissioning of pipelines designed to bypass the territory of Russia.
* In the short term (i.e. up to 2010) it seems likely that exports of gas from Central Asia (not only Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan but also Kazakhstan) to or via Russia will amount to between 60 and 80 billion cubic metres per year.
* It is more difficult to forecast for the medium term (i.e. up to 2020). Some studies have estimated that the supply of gas could rise to between 80 and 110 billion cubic metres per year.
* It is clear that the supply of Central Asian gas to Russia will continue to grow in importance, and that Russia will do everything it can to increase its gas imports. One of the main levers which Russia can use to exert pressure is, as before, to modernise the pipeline infrastructure, which it can do quite quickly. In recent years, Gazprom has been applying a more flexible tariff and pricing policy. Russia is also skilful at linking cooperation in the gas sector to other economic, political or security cooperation.
* The Russian leadership also seems prepared to consider entering the European gas market in conjunction with the countries of Central Asia. There is already an agreement to this effect between Russia and Kazakhstan.
