В Кремле объяснили стремительное вымирание россиян
Tense times Назад
Tense times
Coping with the fraught aftermath of August"s war

SEVEN weeks after the war between Russia and Georgia began, the situation remains edgy. On September 21st a Georgian policeman was shot dead at a checkpoint close to Abkhazia, the breakaway enclave in the north-west-the third policeman to be killed since fighting stopped last month. Two days later the Georgians claimed to have shot down a Russian drone over Gori, near South Ossetia, the other enclave.

Systematic destruction, looting and ethnic cleansing of Georgian villages continue, both in and beyond South Ossetia proper. Georgia is also struggling to cope with some 30,000 refugees from the two enclaves, plus another 30,000 from buffer zones round them. The tents housing them in Gori and elsewhere look pitifully inadequate for winter. Resettling them will take time. And Georgia is already home to more than 200,000 refugees left from the wars in the early 1990s.

The European Union has now sent 300 people to monitor the ceasefire brokered by France"s Nicolas Sarkozy. This will cause further tension, as the EU (backed by the Georgians) insists they should work inside Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Russians will not allow this. Although they are stuck with 28 observers from the Organisation of Security and Co-operation in Europe, they have blocked any new ones. If observers cannot get into the enclaves, they may end up patrolling their borders, which might seem to imply de facto recognition.

Yet Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia"s president, has few regrets-as he showed when he addressed the United Nations in New York this week. He is popular: one survey gives him a 76% approval rating. He insists that the economy is strong enough to ride out the war"s impact. Some officials say GDP growth will fall from 10% to 5% this year, but others expect it to be near-zero. Yet reconstruction work and foreign aid should boost the economy next year.

Mr Saakashvili remains adamant that he did not start the war. The Georgians are handing out evidence, including telephone intercepts, to show that large numbers of Russian troops entered South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel on August 7th, long before the Georgians began bombarding the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali. Mr Saakashvili also insists that this bombardment was in retaliation for Ossetian shelling of Georgian villages after the Georgians had declared a ceasefire. He says he would welcome an inquiry into how the war began; indeed, he claims to have been the first to call for one.

Yet Western governments remain troubled by the Georgian president. Why were claims of Russian troops moving into South Ossetia not made earlier? Many believe that he walked into a trap, miscalculating that he could take South Ossetia before Russian forces arrived in strength. Although publicly they stick to their April commitment that Georgia (and Ukraine) should both one day join NATO, in private some are having second thoughts. It might take another case of Russian aggression, in Georgia or elsewhere, to win them round. Mr Saakashvili, for one, believes that is highly likely to happen.

Sep 25th 2008 " TBILISI
From The Economist print edition



Док. 497918
Перв. публик.: 25.09.08
Последн. ред.: 29.09.08
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  • Саакашвили Михаил Николозович

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