Boris Guseletov: THE TOTALS PARLIAMENTARY CHOICE 2003 and PROSPECTS of the DEVELOPMENT PARTY-POLITICAL SYSTEM to RUSSIAНазад
Boris Guseletov: THE TOTALS PARLIAMENTARY CHOICE 2003 and PROSPECTS of the DEVELOPMENT PARTY-POLITICAL SYSTEM to RUSSIA
Totals parliamentary choice 2003 turned out to be in many unexpected for majority specialist, tried their forecast though the main trends these choice (the weakening position liberal and communist and reinforcement dug the United Russia and patriotic party) were them is guessed faithfully. But these trends were shown сильнее, than was expected, and therefore transformation of the party system turned out to be more radical. In total:
1. Very high result has shown the party an authorities - "United Russia", openly associated with President and power as a whole (basically - a governors) and got as a result absolute majority in State Duma.
2. The Unexpected success obtained the national populist Zhirinovskiy (LDPR) and lion-patriotic motion "Native land" Glaziev-Rogozin.
3. KPRF has reduced more then in two times their own results in contrast with 1999 and has practically freed the lion-center field for new party social-democratic orientation.
4. Both rights-liberal parties SPS and "Yabloko" were practically ruined, not passing in Duma.
These results have brought about collapse established in Russia in 90 years of the party system, which base formed comparatively ideological KPRF, SPS and Yabloko and minimum from choice to choice party authorities with their own multiple satellites, not shown party in full sense of the word.
The main differences this choice from previous.
First, on these choice immediately was clear that opponents to United Russia abandoned to hard fight for power since have considered that results and parliamentary and ling ahead presidential choice clear beforehand. This strategy doomed them on defeat since they have to be go in seaway Flint, only on its actions.
Secondly, changed the attitude a society to the authorities. For years rules Putin firm economic growing exists in country, being accompanied some increasing of the living standard, rating of the President very high, opposition is extremely weakened, international situation to Russia firm and so serious protest of the moods did not exist in society, inherent past election period.
But herewith in society was accumulated discontent by social unfairness, corruption in the authorities, exorbitant breakup in income. The Quintessence these discontent become "антиолигархические of the mood" - a people has seen in this subject, escalated "deal YUKOS", object, to which possible was entrust the blame for their неблагополучие.
Obviously that voting for "ER" was connected with support constituent Putin and its course, which выказывалась both from conformists, and rational considerations. For "party authorities" voted and "obedient" constituents, mobilized by administrative resource, and "average class", seen in "ER" best выразителя its interest, than liberals. Support "UR" turned out to be to be high amongst селян, military, student, serving without higher education. And even more conformism feminine электорат has actively supported "UR".
Third not more important difference - nearly open use the administrative resource. The Scale of its using little differed from previous choice. The advantage "ER" in financial and media resource, inaction court, interference of the regional powers known on past choice. But differences all were and they give qualitative incrimination "ER".
First, on past choice administrative resource used for compromising basically and suppressions of the adversary, and only in the second queue - an increase the chances "their own" party. This time "contra propagate" basically used against KPRF, but the main stress has done on "announce" "UR" and making the happy circumstances "friend" party - "Native land", somewhat - LDPR, NPRF, APR, "PSS-PP".
Secondly, administrative resource was is at most consolidated to account:
- A Direct association "ER" with power that has allowed her in make the most and "direct administrative", and public resource.
- Practically full control on the part of Flint for financial flow, federal телеканалами, which gave very good-natured information on "UR", sharply criticized KPRF, neutral and much little told about rest party. The row party had a sufficient facility for road pay телеэфира, which they have got with approvals Flint.
- Regional and local administrations also basically worked at UR. So named "red governors", helping earlier KPRF this time openly worked at "UR". As a result this candidates from "UR" and close her party obtained the unprecedented success (103 winners from 144 candidates ER, 18 winners from NPRF), but KPRF has tolerated the defeat, having conquered 12 mandates.
All this allows speaking of qualitative reinforcement of the influence "administrative resource" on results choice, international watcher was noted as.
Fourth difference - an evident reduction of the confidence to institute choice and representative authorities:
- An Appearance on choice fell nearly on 6 points before 55,5 %. Obviously monotonous reduction of the appearance on Duma choice since 1995 on 2003 Now she nearly came up to 1993 (refer to the Indicator panel. 1).
- % voting "against all" also was very high. The low appearance and high % voting against all shows that confidence society to party-winner very conditionally.
- Somewhat manifestation of the crisis of the confidence became the growing of the share voice day for not passed to parties. If for frank outsider (got <2%) has voted 9% constituents (as in 1999) then for more significant parties (collected from 2 before 5%) have got in amount more than 15% moreover in their count; calculate; list turned out to be all liberal parties.
The Table 1. "Loss voice" on parliamentary choice
Year Appearance, % Voting "against all", % Number of participant 5%, "favorites" have Taken 2-5% have Taken <2%, "outsiders"
Num % Num % Num %
1993 54,81 4.20 13 8 87,90 1 3,80 4 4,4
1995 64,73 2.77 43 4 50,50 8 29,60 31 17,1
1999 61.85 3.30 26 6 81,40 3 6,20 17 9.0
2003 55,5 4,75 23 4 70,58 4 15,04 15 9.0
The Success "UR" does not require the person of the commentaries. That concerns the rest party, that reasons their success and failures and their prospects require the more detailed analysis.
KPRF
KPRF this time wanted completely to cover the traditional left field, having joined to itself RKRP. But fight for traditional communist электорат and other power, having withdrawer beside it voice:
- "UR", which, first, became "state party" that for constituents of the soviet type of no small importance. Secondly, used in its propaganda of the name Stalin and Dzerzhinsky with the result that for a parts former communist electorate she did not become ideology (the anticommunist) and political (anti state) by enemy.
- "Native land" with its anti oligarchic and nationalistic slogan.
- An Agrarian party - "former" partner KPRF, which was this time shifted to the centre, but has saved attractive for communist electorate slogans (against quotient of the property to the land and "robberies of the peasant" etc.). Got from the authorities certain resource, APR has occupied VII place, having taken ~ 4% voice.
- A Block Party to social fairness and retiree, which most has skillfully intercepted beside KPRF slogans in protection of social fairness and protection of the population. As a result APR and PSS-PP have deprived beside communist ~7% voice. Approximately as much as "has left" to UR and Native land, and beside KPRF remained only her(its) strong kernel (10-15%), but peripheral constituent, verged to KPRF as the most largest оппозиционной parties from she was unscrewed.
The Prospects KPRF hang from that, is able management KPRF objective to acknowledge their own mistakes. But if guilty for they will become Putin, that KPRF it is necessary to abandon to confessions total choice legitimacy and intensify its opposition persisting that totals of the voting adulterated. But go on system conflict with Flint in disadvantage for itself condition for weakened KPRF very dangerously. Many its functionaries are lost the deputy mandates, a part party sponsor did not pass in Duma and can get up the question about return embedded investment. But growing contradiction with Flint can bring about reinforcement of the pressure on its main of the sponsor - a corporation "Rosagropromstroy". So great probability that that KPRF will not dispute the results a choice, but continues the verbal critic to electoral campaign and revealing the separate breaches. But then responsibility to come to carry Zyuganov, which "припомнят" and refusal of alliance with Glaziev, and defensive nature of conduct to campaigns.
KPRF there is comprehend its future and model of the renovation to parties: in that that it necessary and for he has come the moment, doubts does not remain even inwardly to parties. There is solve both questions of the trained renovation, and choice to strategies - "radicaliased" or "social-democratizations" moreover the first variant more probable on frames of mind of the party asset, the second - more rational with standpoint that that dangerous rival appears beside KPRF on protest field - "project Glaziev". But, considering "strong" nature managing звена and электората parties, probably such attempts turn out to be uncanny. In this case KPRF waits the slow fading - such fate, learned no time viable communist parties Western European countries.
Native land
The Success of the block "Native land" had a row of the component.
First, he is aptly inserted in anti oligarchic campaign - Glaziev and Rogozin hard accelerated this subjects that has allowed "to wash away" протестную part электората KPRF and "deprive" constituents beside "Yabloko" that has played for it fatal role.
Secondly, at the head his stood the group a politician (Glaziev, Rogozin, Baburin, Geraschenko, Shpak, A.Saveliev), earlier together in choice not participated, outwardly with each other compatible, formed, energetically defending their own positions, without communist archaic.
Third appeal to two the most strong "irritant of" public consciousness, given birth in 90 years: unjust distribution social good, absence beside most society possibilities for vertical transportability and blunted, but not изжитый syndrome of the loss to empires. "Anti oligarchy" became the central point for advance subject of social fairness, but freshness and aggressiveness "economist" Glaziev and "patriot" Rogozina has allowed the tax of these subject выигрышно extremely.
The Prospects "Native lands" in present Duma not very sanguine. Obviously that "UR", got in her absolute majority, not intending to transfer "Native land" powerful resource. And presently for "Native lands" most it is important to bolt its informal coalition with "militarist" in the authorities. Exactly "Native land" most adequately expresses their ideology. Only in this case "Native land" will be able the having become active political player on Russian political arena. But serious internal problems are saved in most "Native land". The Block was formed hastily, and comprises of itself political power, united only on the eve choice. Moreover if Glaziev came from faction KPRF and, as from 1993 belonged to oppositions, that Rogozin, opposite, for all last years was "at the authorities".
There is else "Public will" Baburin, one of блокообразующих structures "Native lands", who row of the representatives have removed from list to not to discredit Glaziev and Rogozin in eye of the moderate constituents. Then this has not brought about decay of the block, but after choice of the contradiction can grows. Particularly if take into account that "Public will" prone to political radicalism and its partner in Europe is a known French nationalist Le Spumes.
So does not cost neither to exaggerate, nor minimize the effect from appearance in parliament "serious nationalist". Their prospects will depend as from level partner in the authorities, so and from own internal stability "Native lands". But not "friability of" party will define its fates. The Glaziev was able "to caught" determined public request. And if to 2007 he will save urgency (that as likely as not), but Glaziev will not forfeit its attractiveness as the policy, he has a chance to repeat the success. The Experience Russian party ("Yabloko" and LDPR) shows that ligament "popular leader + popular idea" viable on choice, but costing for her party can be mutated as please radically (lose the leader, tolerate the crisis"s, schisms and scandals) without prejudice to rating of the parties.
LDPR
Zhirinovskiy steel by one more winner and has already declared that LDPR in Duma will become to co-operate with "ER". The Success LDPR possible to explain beside factor. First this most "anti system" party loyal to president. Vote for it - signifies to raise an objection to ruling elite, but not against president. Secondly, LDPR traditionally successfully used the possibility electronic SMI. Third, Zhirinovskomu to manage "be inserted" in context of one of dominant that present campaign - a problems to fairness. Forth, LDPR - one of the little party, having furcated regional network.
Liberals - SPS and Yabloko
For them results choice most become the most aggrieving. For the first time nor one of them not преодолела 5% barrier. The Crisis these party is connected with beside reasons.
The First - a main slogan party-winners - a fight with oligarch, but liberals turned out to be in dug "oligarshic" party (financing "Yabloko" YUKOS, figure Chubays, one of the creators олигархической systems). In this situation calls both party to restriction of the influence "силовиков" were considered constituent as desire to support the oligarch.
The Second is concluded in that that rate of the liberal reforms power realizes without their evident participation.
The Third - weariness of the constituents from these party and their unchangeable leader. Their popularity liberal party at the last one and a half year carrion. If in 2002 total ratings "Yabloko" and SPS formed 12-18% from active constituents then with springtime 2003 he dropped to 12-14%, but after begin campaigns else below.
Both parties were ruined in its main message. SPS after "rebirths" in 1999. aspired to the role of partner of the President and ideologues of the liberal reforms. But long before present campaign became clear that "partnership" Putin with SPS turned out to be temporary and limited, but subject of the reforms was a bad choice. The situation has not corrected neither cut-in Chubays in the first "three-tuple", nor "anti-fascist" campaign against "Native lands", nor thesis about liberal empire. The having lost association with Putin, SPS has lost 50% their own constituents sample 1999 "Yabloko" has conducted the not bad campaign. The Results of the voting have complied with "kernel" its electorate. But new constituent she has not seized: "state" pathos, appeared beside Yavlinsky was unconvincing. He became the hostage its имиджа: constituent has not believed that "eternal critic" became the state, but image of the economist, proposed alternative strategy beside he has deprived more "fresh" politician - Glaziev.
Before SPS and Yabloko cost the problem of the rebirth. They need the new ideas, which positive has perceived the liberal part of constituents, as before forming 15-18%. They it is necessary to define its attitude to "oligarch" moreover clearly and clear, find the new leader, which could add the liberal an effect "freshness", completely lost presently.
While dimly, will power when shaping the new liberal project to do the rate on these parties or will support new political power. On this background SPS and "Yabloko" must prove its political capacity, otherwise Kremlin simply plagiarizes their expert resource.
Besides, SPS and "Yabloko" there is "anti parliamentary" existence, which they have no. But SPS in his (its) present type consists of people to a considerable extent, oriented on success solely. If intentions be updated and/or be united while remain declarative, that old disease liberal were already shown in get fat power. The Real collapse of the attempt of the renovation of the liberal camp and conversions these party in marginal "sects".
The Prospects liberal hang from that, will insofar manage to realize the project reforming this part of the political spectrum, which can begin already in the course of ling ahead presidential choice. If present liberals will confirm its capacity, they will save the possibility to play the active role in this process. But their first steps sooner inspire the pessimism.
The Prospects of the development party-political system to Russia.
The Grand total choice - a scale crisis of the party system: old parties were ruined, and prospects them this crisis disadvantage. He in equal degree pertains both to KPRF, and to "Yabloko" and SPS. The Winners can exist as firm factions of the parliament and reckon for repetition of its success on the following choice, but not on conversion in full-fledged parties i.e. autonomous and outline subjects politicians.
This election became the new stage of the fortification in Russia of the authoritarian mode presidential authorities. Moreover its new features have and quantitative, and qualitative measurement: quantitative - a certain majority in Duma, guaranteed victory on presidential choice in the first aurochs. Qualitative is not reduced only to disappearance liberal with parliamentary scene. More greatly that power itself high in country national-populism and anti liberalism, has aggravated this objective contradiction between liberal nature of the marked reforms and нелиберальным by nature society, deprived President full tilts in political class and усложнив dialogue authorities with society.
Док. 274993 Опублик.: 01.02.07 Число обращений: 1826
